nternational Monetary Fund (IMF) in at update to World Economic Outlook
(WEO) on 23 January 2013, projected that the global economic growth rate
would be 3.5 percent in 2013. The update mentioned that the global
economic growth would strengthen gradually as the limitations of the
economic activities have seen a positive note with the start of the
year.
Some of the major projections of IMF are• Global growth would reach 3.5 percent in 2013, from 3.2 percent in 2012
• Crisis risks would narrow down but the downside risks will remain crucial
• Main sources of growth would be the emerging markets, developing countries and the United States
Reasons that may be beneficial in betterment of the economic growth •
The actions taken in policy making have been responsible in reducing
the risk of the acute crisis situation faced in the area and the United
States.
• Actions in terms of plans taken by Japan would also be
beneficial in pulling it out from a short-lived recession kind of
condition.
• The policies made by the emerging economies of the
world in terms of policy making is has also shown positive outcomes with
a good start in the year
The report also described that if the
risks of crisis doesn’t materialize, then the expected targets of growth
may be crossed and can be stronger then that is projected.
Thing that can show an impact, the growth or result into the downfall• Fiscal tightening, if crosses an excessive limit in United States it may have an adverse impact on the economic growth
• Long-term stagnation of the euro-area would also have an adverse impact
Situations that hinted towards improvement in economic conditionsThe
economic conditions of the world had shown a positive movement in the
third quarter of the 2012 and this was change brought by the performance
displayed on the economic front by the emerging economies of the world
as well as United States. The borrowing cost of the countries in Euro
Zone was marginally better than expected but it also identified some of
the weaknesses in the core Euro area. Japan was under the effect of
recession in the second half of 2012, which had shown positive signs of
improvement in the running year.
Forecasts and the Expected Changes•
In terms of Euro Zone, IMF managed to downgrade its forecast as this
economic situation of the region may contract a bit n 2013.
• The
report also observed slight improvement in the financial conditions of
the banks and governments of the Periphery economies, occurred due to
the policy actions undertaken by them but these economies has yet not
improved in terms of the borrowing conditions in private sector.
•
In terms of United States, the forecast remained broadly unchanged to
that of the of October 2012 WEO to 2 percent, but predicted that the
support offered to the financial market would support the growth in
consumption in the country
• In terms of Japan, the near-term
outlook has also remained unchanged regardless of the recession
witnessed by the country in recent past and it’s expected that the
monetary easing and incentive package would boost the growth in the
country
• The report projected that the developing economies and
the emerging market of the world would grow by 5.5 percent in 2013 and
it will remain almost same as it was predicted in October 2012 WEO.
•
In case of China, the IMF has forecasted a growth rate of 7.8 percent,
8.2 percent and 8.5 percent in 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively. In
2011, it witnessed a growth rate of 9.3 percent.
Findings of the report and threats•
Following the findings of the report in detail, it’s projected that
the Euro Area is one of the biggest threat to the Global Economic
Outlook as it poses a downside risk to the economy. If the momentum of
reforms is not maintained in the Euro Area than the risk of prolonged
stagnation would increase
• To move ahead of the risk factor,
adjustment programs from the periphery countries should continue and be
supported by the firewall developments for prevention of the contagion
and take steps towards banking union and fiscal integration, the report
stated.
• In case of United States, excessive fiscal consolidation
in short term should be avoided and it should raise the debt ceiling
and should move ahead to identify a credible medium-term fiscal
consolidation plan, that focuses towards entitlement and tax reform.
•
In context of Japan, the report identified that it should find out a
medium-term fiscal strategy as lack of such an strategy can bring risks
to the stimulus package to it
• The developing nations and emerging economies need to make fine policies to tackle the of rising domestic imbalances
The
overall decrease in the forecast for the global economic growth rate is
the result of the economic slowdown witnessed by the world due to the
Euro Zone Crisis in existence. The Euro Zone crisis had an adverse
impact on the export and import of the world, leading to great set-backs
to the emerging economies of the world as well as the developed
economies. Before, Euro Crisis the world also suffered from the
recession that hit the United States of America in 2009. Japan also
witnessed an economic slowdown after the Tsunami that hit the country in
2011 and affected the Fukushima nuclear Plant.